The above average project team

Reading back through my post on cognitive bias. A couple of items from the list stood out for me as being interesting to consider with respect to how we think and see projects, and project leadership.

The Lake Wobegon effect (You know that you’ll be quoting this later), is apparently named after a fictional US town where everyone is above average. This is quite appropriate for a cognitive bias that’s probably best demonstrated with an example

“The swedish researcher Ola Svenson found that 80% of drivers surveyed rated themselves in the top 30% of all drivers.^[1]”

For a variety of attributes including fairness, virtuosity, luck, and investing ability, most people apparently believe that they are above average.

So my question is this, if this holds for self-assessment of ‘project delivery skills’, how might this affect someone’s ability to budget, and forecast the length of time taken for particular tasks?

… in my experience, many project managers do indeed believe that not only they, but their entire team is better than average, and consequently can shave budget and time off of recommended plans.

(Is there a “Project Wobegon Effect” that people can be prepared for?)

Does this tally with your experience too?

—Jason Bates

Tags: Lake+Wobegon, Project+management, cognitive+bias